Chapters 26–28 · Predicting campaign ROI

Campaign ROI Cutoff

Average response rate is meaningless for list depth. Compute breakeven, add safety, mail only RF cells that clear the bar. Same math that turns a −$160 blast into profit.

Cost per customer ($) Margin per response ($)

Discount % of price Safety cushion %

Customers in file Activity curve

Breakeven RR = cost per customer ÷ margin per response. Discounts raise the hurdle (lower net margin).