Turn customer data into decisions — not dashboards.
Drilling Down is one of the great practical books on behavior-based marketing. This site productizes the method: who to spend on, when to spend, how deep to mail, and who to leave alone — with spreadsheet-simple tools.
Book & method by Jim Novo · jimnovo.com ↗
Decision tools
Each tool answers a real operating question from the book — not a vanity chart.
Friction Portfolio
Current × Potential 2×2. Rocket Fuel, Defecting Best, High Potential, Low/Low — with spend rules.
Trip Wire Builder
Average time between events → automation rule at the defection tipping point.
Recency Dipstick
Rank the file by days-since. Recent customers respond more and carry more potential value.
RF Quintile Scorer
Book-method 20% bins for R and F (optional M). Export who. Link out to the full RFM suite.
LifeCycle Grid
Multi-hurdle friction map. Boundaries from real LifeCycle breaks — promote the middle.
Hurdle Rate Health
One board-ready number: % of the base clearing Recency + Frequency cutoffs.
Campaign ROI Cutoff
Breakeven RR = cost ÷ margin. Cut cells below the line. Volume ↔ profit lever.
Relative LTV
Compare acquisition sources on repeat behavior before you wait a “lifetime.”
The operating system
Seven principles the tools enforce so you don’t drift back into average-rate theater.
Behavior over demographics
Profiles describe. Models of action predict response and defection.
Current + potential value
LTV is both. Potential shows up in Latency, Recency, and RF trends.
Don’t spend until you have to
Trip wires beat calendar blasts. Grease the hinge, not the whole door.
Max impact, then stop
When you spend, spend at the LifeCycle moment that moves the needle.
Profit = who you skip
Most campaign waste is over-spending on unsuitable targets.
Track rising / falling
Direction of value beats a perfect absolute LTV you can’t compute yet.
Breakeven by segment
Average response rate is a lie. Cut the list where cells go underwater.
Recommended path (first week)
- Internalize the Friction Portfolio language with your team.
- Ship one Latency trip wire with a holdout control.
- Score a real file with the RF Scorer.
- Before the next paid send, run Campaign ROI Cutoff.
- Make Hurdle Rate a monthly scoreboard metric.